Related links and documents:

  1. The Project - presentation at Trinity College
  2. A suite of macroeconomic models for Ireland

 

This website describes the current and planned activities of the Joint Macro Modelling Project.

With this joint project the Central Bank of Ireland (CBI) and the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) plan to develop jointly a suite of modern macroeconomic/econometric models of the Irish economy as a basis for informing macroeconomic analysis and policy decisions. Staff from both institutions are involved in jointly developing such models.

The participating institutions already use a variety of models for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. Such models, and the models being developed in the context of the MMP are no exception, are simply a way to organize information and help create a consistent picture of future developments. None of them can be thought as exhaustive, and expert judgement inevitably comes into play when models are used. For this reason, and in particular in the current period of high uncertainty, none of the models can be thought of as the model on which policy decisions or assessments are based. For this reason, the Project will frequently develop complementary models dealing with different angles of the same issue.

This project is of critical importance to both organisations particularly in light of the current challenges facing the Irish economy.

 

Related links and documents:

Download the Annual Report (PDF)

 

This is the first Annual  Report on progress of the  Macro Modeling Project (MMP).  The Report covers the activities of the MMP over the period from end of 2012 to present. In the future this report will be produced annually.

 

Three main classes of models are produced within the project: DSGE models, to be mainly used in counterfactual policy simulations; macro structural models, more targeted at medium term forecasting and policy simulations; and short-term forecasting, mainly data driven. The MMP work has been organised into different work streams, focusing respectively on:

·         the development of a comprehensive database for the modeling project;

·         The creation of an infrastructure to run models efficiently and in a comparable manner;

·         the creation of a structural econometric  model of the Irish economy; 

·         the development of a DSGE model for the Irish economy;

·         the development of several more specialized models for forecasting;

·         the development of a website for the dissemination of models, data and related analytical work;

·         the running of a seminar series dedicated to modeling issues and related topics.

 Models, related research and publications and code will be publicly released for use as a public good (see section "models" of this website).

The Macro Modelling Project is open to external participation.

    • We collaborate with the academic community, sharing seminars, information, and working together in the realization of specific aspects of the models.
    • We collaborate with other institutions, inviting experts, and developping models as common activities (e.g. the Irish Eagle)
    • We hire interns, consultants, and new members of the team through wide spread public announcements and competitions.
  1. The activities of the Macro Modelling Project are public, including seminars organized within the premises of the bank. The scope is to diffuse a modelling culture and to increase, through interactions and public scrutiny, the quality of our work. To this end, we encourage comments, suggestions and proposals.
  2. The results of the project and the models produced are distributed via this website as a public good. (For research activities and under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2 or any later). The output includes
    • working papers explaining the models and how they work
    • the code of the models, the relative databases, and analytical work shown at seminars
    • all other material, including papers and presentations from seminars (these remain however intellectual property of the authors).